In 2019, the balance of power in Pac-12, West Coast recruiting rests in Oregon’s hands


Commentary, Recruiting / Monday, June 24th, 2019

DJ Uiagalelei. Kendall Milton. Justin Flowe. Sav’ell Smalls. Elias Ricks. Kelee Ringo. Darnell Washington.

What do these seven names have in common?

In addition to being considered five-star prospects out West in 2020 (per 247Sports’ Composite Rankings), each of these players is either currently committed to a school outside of the Pac-12 footprint, or is strongly considering schools outside of the Pac-12’s footprint – a troubling migration trend if you’re a member of the Pac-12 Conference.

Even more troubling is the fact that this is just a small sampling of highly-touted West Coast prospects who have either committed to or are strongly leaning towards leaving the region. Borderline five-star recruits such as Gee Scott, Tosh Baker, and Lathan Ransom represent a talented “second-tier” of recruits who are also part of this eastward exodus.

This is more than just some strange coincidence, as the West Coast’s hemorrhaging of top flight talent to non-Pac-12 programs seems to be particularly endemic of the last two recruiting cycles.

The 2019 recruiting class out West saw nine 247Sports Composite Top 100 recruits leave the region (counting Chris Steele and Bru McCoy, who committed to Florida and Texas, respectively, before eventually transferring back west to USC). In 2020, 13 Top 100 players have either chosen, or are heavily considering heading east.

Former Florida CB Chris Steele (Photo: Alex de la Osa/Florida UAA Communications)

These are starling numbers in comparison to the 2017 and 2018 recruiting classes, which saw the West Coast lose a combined total of 12 Top 100 recruits to programs outside of the Pac-12’s footprint.

The cause of this loss of talent is multi-factorial, but it’s no coincidence that a major reason for the conference’s recruiting downturn has much to do with the recent trials and tribulations at USC and Oregon – the two most dominant programs in the Pac-12 the past two decades. Both programs have been in various states of disarray over this recent four-year stretch, but it’s the Ducks who have only now re-positioned themselves as a program on the cusp of being considered a true national contender from the conference.

Yet, as Duck fans know, being on the fringes of the nation’s elite and being part of its inner circle are two very different things.

The program has slowed but surely stabilized after the collapse of the 2016 season and the ouster of Mark Helfrich that came shortly thereafter. Willie Taggart re-energized Eugene with a loud recruiting approach and a genuine sense of optimism in 2017, only before deciding he’d rather be in Tallahassee after one 7-5 season with the Ducks. Last season, in his first year as head coach, Mario Cristobal enthusiastically grabbed the reins and added even more verve to Oregon’s recruiting approach, leading the Ducks to a 9-4 finish, which included their first win over a top 10 team and first bowl victory since 2014, as well as their first win over Washington since 2015.

In 2019, with the potential no. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft at quarterback, the most experienced offensive line in college football, and an up and coming defense that blends proven experience with promising young talent, it’s no surprise that expectations for Oregon are the highest they’ve been in five years.

Postgame Post Mortem: Takeaways from Oregon's win over Oregon State
Oregon QB Justin Herbert (Photo: Eric Evans/GoDucks.com)

Which also means they’re arguably the most consequential, particularly on the recruiting front.

Perhaps more than at any time in the last 20 years, the Pac-12 is in need of a program that is capable of stepping up and contending once again with the nation’s top Power 5 programs. And Oregon, with its renewed culture, re-imagined approach to recruiting, and growing momentum, appears to have the pieces in place to seize that title.

A strong 2019 campaign, specifically one that features a double-digit win total – including a victory in the Pac-12 Championship Game and probably a win over Auburn in Week 1 – would seemingly provide the breakthrough needed to validate what Cristobal is attempting to fashion at Oregon – the rare West Coast program that’s imbued with SEC DNA.

USC certainly had that aura about them in the mid-2000’s, and it was their ability to attract and win with the West Coast’s best talent that elevated them to the top of the sport during that period.

A similar foundation has been laid by Cristobal, who, with the help of seven West Coast recruits ranked in the Composite’s Top 250, delivered Oregon its first top 10 recruiting class in school history last cycle.

With six months to go before the 2020 class can officially sign a letter of intent, the Ducks may be working against the clock to change the hearts and minds of the region’s aforementioned top recruits. However, it’s a period of time that, with the right results from the prime opportunities at hand, could dramatically re-direct the West Coast’s flow of premium talent and the Pac-12’s balance of power in Oregon’s favor for years to come.

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