Forget the past the three weeks. The season starts now.
An offseason of hope, hard work, preparation, and anticipation has been building towards this red letter weekend for the 20th-ranked Oregon Ducks, culminating Saturday evening when the Ducks take on the 7th-ranked Stanford Cardinal inside Autzen Stadium.
This is where the strength of the Oregon football program’s reformed culture and approach under first-year head coach Mario Cristobal gets it’s first significant stress test. Though three non-conference games have resulted in three wins for the Ducks, not much is known about this team beyond the fact that Justin Herbert is a really talented quarterback, and the Oregon defense looks salty once again under second-year defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt.
With the inside track to the Pac-12 North division title potentially on the line, WFOD examines the keys to victory for Oregon in their monumental conference opener.
1. Get the running game on track
Regardless of your thoughts on Oregon’s performance and overall psyche in wins over three pedestrian (at best) non-conference opponents, the bottom line is the Ducks’ rushing attack hasn’t quite looked right as they work to find a replacement(s) for the graduated Royce Freeman. It’s true that the Ducks currently lead the Pac-12 in rushing averaging 214 yards per game, but they have yet to find a true workhorse running back they can rely on. Inconsistency has perhaps been the biggest issue for the Ducks on the ground through the early portion of the season, both in terms of the number of carries that have been divvied up between Oregon’s six scholarship ball carriers and their overall production. Tony Brooks-James and CJ Verdell appear to be the two players creating the most separation amongst that group, but even then, no one would say that either has made a convincing case to Oregon’s top back.
Cristobal would be the first to tell you that much of that lands at the feet of Oregon’s highly-touted offensive line. Against a perennially rugged Stanford defense, it will be imperative for the Ducks to establish some level of consistency gaining yards on the ground in order to help alleviate the burden that falls on shoulders of Herbert. Against an overmatched San Jose State team last week, the Ducks were bullied in the trenches as they were held to 2.7 yards per carry. That can’t happen if Oregon has any hope to win on Saturday.
2. Limit the impact of JJ Arcega-Whiteside
While the Stanford offense may not necessarily have the reputation for being explosive, it certainly features two players who are more than capable of making explosive plays. After a brilliant performance last season, Stanford running back Bryce Love made himself a household name across America, rushing for over 2,000 yards and capping off his year as a Heisman Trophy finalist. And while he returns to the Cardinal as one of the nation’s most dangerous offensive weapons, it’s the 6-foot-3, 225-pound athlete split out wide that has opposing defensive coordinators tossing and turning at night. That man’s name is JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and along with Stanford’s talented tight ends in Kaden Smith and Colby Parkinson, he poses a myriad of potential problems for Oregon’s secondary.
Against the pass, the Ducks’ defensive backfield hasn’t exactly been a no-fly zone. Through three games, Oregon ranks 78th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (226.0) and is tied for 88th in passing touchdowns allowed (6). Entering Saturday’s contest, Arcega-Whiteside is the Pac-12’s leader in touchdown receptions (5) and ranks second in receiving yards (324). He’s also perhaps the conference’s most effective red zone and downfield threat. In fact, seven of Arcega-Whiteside’s 13 receptions this season have gone for 19 yards or more. Corralling Love will be key, but the most difficult task on the field Saturday will be keeping no. 19 in white in check.
3. Oregon’s receivers must help Herbert get into rhythm
Speaking of receivers, Oregon needs theirs to make a handful of plays on Saturday. More so than the curious smell emanating from the Oregon ground game, the receiving corp for the Ducks has drawn the most criticism from fans and members of the media this season. In particular, the much-maligned group has been plagued by well-documented drops that have either truncated potential scoring drives or directly resulted in would-be touchdowns being wiped off the board.
Against a talented Stanford secondary, the margin for error for Oregon’s receivers will be significantly reduced compared to what they have faced through the first three weeks of the season. It’s for this reason that guys like Dillon Mitchell, Johnny Johnson, and Jaylon Redd need to be sharp in order to help Herbert and the rest of the offense work themselves into a rhythm – especially early. The vast majority of the team’s drops have come within the first few offensive series, which hasn’t helped Herbert’s completion percentage (or confidence, for that matter) nor has it benefited the Ducks in getting off to quick starts, in general. A couple early grabs that result in first downs could do wonders for a group that desperately needs to get on track.
4. Don’t let the moment be too big
By now, just about everyone is aware of the attention that will be on this game Saturday night. Not only is it GameDay’s first trip to Eugene since 2014, but it’s also the first game of major significance for just about every player on the Oregon sideline. The hype and the hubbub around this game is new for so many of the key names involved in this game that one can’t help but wonder how they will fare under the bright lights of Autzen Stadium and a national television audience. Maintaining poise and finding a way to block out distractions in the build up to the game will be a key component to success, and it’ll be interesting to see just how well this coaching staff is able to prepare this team for their first big moment. A focused group that is executing well would be an encouraging sign both in this game and moving forward.