Nearly a week of stewing and second guessing has passed since Oregon’s deflating loss versus Stanford, but if we’re being honest, there are still those fleeting moments of frustration that come rushing back, reminding you of what could have been.
It’s a natural way to process stinging defeat, though with roughly a day to go before the next game on the schedule, the time has come to turn the page.
On deck for the Ducks is no. 24 Cal, a team that has clawed out three straight wins to start the season and is buoyed by a defense that is one of the nation’s best at forcing turnovers and limiting opponents on third down.
There’s no rest for the weary in the Pac-12 North, as Saturday night’s game between the Ducks and Golden Bears will provide the winner with a chance to keep pace in the divisional standings. Below, WFOD examines the keys to victory for Oregon in their Pac-12 road opener at Cal.
1. Shake off the residual emotion from last week
It’s one thing for fans and members of the media to dwell on the events of last Saturday’s loss to Stanford, but for players and members of the Oregon coaching staff, that game must be flushed and focus must be shifted to this week’s opponent in Cal. For what it’s worth, players and coaches have said all the right things in the build up to this week’s game. Wide receiver Dillon Mitchell, who was one of the stars for the Ducks in last week’s game, even went as far as to say that he and the rest of his teammates feel like “caged animals” who are champing at the bit, ready to unleash their pent up frustration.
That’s all well and good, though only as long it’s appropriately channeled. Against a tough Cal team who has had extra time to prepare for Oregon coming off a bye, the last thing the Ducks need to do is come into Berkeley overemotional and pressing in an effort to make plays and erase the feelings from the previous week. A focused and controlled approach, particularly early, could go a long way towards getting off to a strong start that is sustained throughout the contest.
2. Avoid costly turnovers
The one area in the final box score of the Stanford game that Oregon failed to win was the turnover battle. Against the Cardinal, the Ducks were victimized by three turnovers, two of which directly led to 10 crucial points for Stanford as they made their comeback bid. And while Duck fans will understandably argue the fluky nature of these gaffs, the point remains that Oregon failed to make enough fundamentally sound plays to win Saturday’s game. As the Ducks prepare to face Cal, the onus will be on the Oregon offense to play mistake-free football against a team that is one of the nation’s best through four weeks of play in forcing opponent turnovers.
How good are the Golden Bears in this department? Entering Saturday’s game, Cal is tied for second in the nation in interceptions (7) and feature the nation’s second leading interceptor in safety Jaylinn Hawkins. Furthermore, Cal ranks in the top five nationally in defensive S+P, which is an adjusted scoring average that takes into account opponent efficiency, explosiveness, and factors related to opponent field position and their ability to finish drives. In other words, the Bears do a great job of limiting their opponents in each of these areas. The Oregon offense will no doubt be the Cal defense’s most difficult challenge to date, but the Ducks would be fool-hearty to believe that this trip to Berkeley isn’t filled with potential stumbling blocks.
3. Convert on third down
Along with winning the turnover battle, another key to victory for the Ducks on Saturday will be their ability to extend drives by converting their third down opportunities. In addition to being one of the nation’s top teams in turning opponents over, Cal has also been excellent this year in getting teams off the field on third down. The Golden Bears currently rank ninth nationally in opponent third down conversion percentage (25%), but are even more impressive when you look deeper at down and distance metrics. In fact, Cal ranks fifth nationally in opponent third-and-medium success rate (21.7%) and are the nation’s best team in opponent third-and-long success rate (5.6%).
The good news for Oregon fans is that the Ducks have been among the nation’s best at finding success in third-and-long situations (ranked 7th nationally at 46.2%), but that’s kind of like being really good at drawing a face card in blackjack when you come out of the shoot with two cards totaling nine. At the end of the day third-and-long situations are not ideal under normal circumstances, and against the Bears this season, it has proven to be an especially tall order to keep the chains moving. Staying ahead of schedule will be important for Oregon on Saturday.