A strong finish to the 2018 season begins in earnest this Saturday when the 19th-ranked Ducks travel to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats.
In spots this season, Oregon has looked like a team that is more than capable of challenging for the right to the proverbial Pac-12 throne. A win over Washington briefly announced Oregon as “back,” though a narrow, heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Stanford and a ugly performance in a loss last week at Washington State leaves enough uncertainty heading into these final few weeks of the regular season that it’s hard to definitively say who Oregon is at this point.
A 10-win season is still possible, however, and given the expectations for this team before the season began, that would be a tremendous accomplishment in Year 1 of Mario Cristobal’s tenure in Eugene.
With roughly 24 hours remaining before the Ducks take their hopeful first step towards closing out their season with authority, WFOD examines the keys to an Oregon victory over Arizona.
1. Get off to a fast start (and keep the pedal down)
Through seven contests, it would be stretch to say that the Ducks have made a habit of opening games in a frenzy. However, they have been a team that has, for the most part, been composed and efficient in the first half of games this season. That all got flipped on its head last week at Washington State, as Oregon posted one of its worst halves of football – both offensively and defensively – in recent memory.
This week, with Arizona on deck, Oregon needs to prove that last week’s performance in Pullman was the exception, not the rule, when it comes to what is expected from this team over the course of the next several weeks. Considering the sour taste that has lingered in their mouth since returning to Eugene in defeat, it should be expected that the Ducks come out of the week focused, angry, and aggressive with their game plan. Though this Oregon team doesn’t have that supercharged gear that dominant Duck teams in recent past have possessed, there’s enough explosive threats in their arsenal to exploit the Arizona defense, currently ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in total defense. A deeper look at the statistics also reveals that Oregon has been one of the better teams in the country this year when it comes to finishing drives, ranking 40th nationally in points per scoring opportunity (4.94). Conversely, Arizona has been among the nation’s worst teams in this department, surrendering 5.16 points per scoring opportunity which ranks 112th nationally. The Ducks will need to take advantage in order to get off to the hot start they so deeply desire.
2. Hold J.J. Taylor in check
Arizona running back J.J. Taylor may be the best kept secret in the Pac-12 and perhaps all of college football. Despite his sawed off 5-foot-6, 184-pound frame, Taylor is absolute dynamite with the ball in his hands. This season, the redshirt sophomore leads all Power Five conference players with 1,315 all-purpose yards (817 rushing, 87 receiving, 411 kickoff returns) and is third nationally among all FBS players in all-purpose yards per game (164.4 yards per game). We’ve made a habit of comparing him to Darren Sproles due to his size and comparable skill-set, but the shoe fits, particularly when you consider Taylor’s production in 2018.
Given his multi-purpose abilities, expect Arizona head coach Kevin Sumlin to find a wide variety of ways to get the ball in Taylor’s hands as he is no doubt the focal point of the Wildcats offense, especially with quarterback Khalil Tate hobbled. With that, the Ducks will need to make Taylor the focal point of their defensive game plan. Oregon has been tough against the run this season (currently ranked second in the Pac-12 in rushing defense), though it’s safe to say that Arizona will pose the greatest challenge on the ground that the Ducks have faced all season. Paced not only by the electric Taylor, but also sophomore Gary Brightwell (443 yards and two touchdowns on 77 carries), the Wildcats are the conference’s second best team on the ground, averaging 196.5 yards per game. However, much of whatever success Arizona experiences on offense this Saturday boils down to Taylor.
3. Win the battle for field position
Another key to success for Oregon on Saturday will be the ability to win the field position battle. Thus far, the Ducks have not only been a proficient team when it comes to finishing drives, they’ve also been the beneficiary of great starting field position all season long, ranking 16th nationally in the category. A tip of the cap goes to the Oregon defense and special teams unit for putting Justin Herbert and this offense in advantageous positions, and their continued success in this department will be critical to earning victory Saturday. Truth be told, it should be an area with which the Ducks can exploit, as Arizona has been one of the nation’s worst teams when it comes to offensive starting field position (currently ranked 103rd nationally).