Oregon’s keys to victory over Utah


Team / Friday, November 9th, 2018

Strange as it may seem, only three weeks remain in the regular season.

For Oregon, it’s been a year where excitement and anguish have taken up residence as next door neighbors. Thrilling peaks for this team have often been followed by agonizing valleys, as consistency has been fleeting not just game to game, but at times quarter to quarter.

With their penultimate road test coming this week in Salt Lake City, the Ducks will try to capture the consistent play that has often eluded them this season against a Utah side that is in a sudden state of flux following the season-ending injury to starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and Thursday’s news that star running back Zack Moss will miss the remainder of the year following a knee injury suffered Wednesday in practice.

Below, WFOD examines this week’s keys to victory for Oregon.

Oregon’s keys to victory over Utah
Utah QB Jason Shelley (Photo: Jeffrey D. Allred/Deseret News)

1. Force Jason Shelley to beat you

Without Tyler Huntley in the lineup, the Utes are even more one-dimensional than they were before he broke his collarbone last week versus Arizona State. Huntley is far from an accomplished passer, but he had been playing with an air of confidence this season. The junior signal-caller performed particularly well during Utah’s four-game winning streak, which included resounding victories over Stanford, Arizona, USC, and UCLA. During that stretch, Huntley completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 879 yards, seven touchdowns, and only two interceptions, while the Utes scored no fewer than 40 points in each of their wins.

With Huntley out, the Utes will be without the experience and improved quarterback play that had given this team a leg up on the competition in the Pac-12 South division during the month of October. Taking his place is Jason Shelley, a redshirt freshman from the Dallas area, who will be making his first career start this Saturday. Though he’s appeared in four games this season, little is known about Shelley. Ranked as the nation’s 17th-best dual-threat quarterback in the 2017 class by 247Sports’ Composite rankings, Shelley was pedestrian at best in the first extended action of his career last week at Arizona State, completing just 4 of 11 passes for 59 yards and one interception. Given that the strength of the Utah offense is its ground game, it would seem the Ducks would be well served to sellout to stop the run, even though talented running back Zack Moss will also miss this game after suffering his own season-ending injury Wednesday.

Oregon’s keys to victory over Utah
Oregon QB Justin Herbert (Photo: Maddie Knight/Emerald)

2. Stay on schedule against a talented Utah defense

If you’re Oregon, part of forcing Jason Shelley to beat you is by executing and converting possessions to points when you take the field on offense. That’s easier said than done, however. For one, the Ducks have been anemic on offense in recent weeks. Justin Herbert has failed to work himself into a rhythm with any receivers outside of Dillon Mitchell, while the running game has been rendered largely ineffective due to a combination of mediocre line play and the simple fact that Oregon has been unable to find success on first and second down with any consistency. Secondly, Utah’s defense is one of the best in the Pac-12, and is ranked in the top 20 nationally in both total defense (314.7 yards per game) and rushing defense (100 yards per game).

If the Ducks hope to administer pressure to Shelley, it will be incumbent on the offense to provide the defense with an advantageous position to work from. That means Oregon will need to win the battle on first and second down in order to convert easy third downs, an area they’ve excelled in as the Pac-12’s best third down conversion team (44.93 percent).

Oregon’s keys to victory over Utah
Oregon CB Thomas Graham in on a tackle versus a UCLA receiver. (Photo: Ben Green)

3. How much does the overall game plan changed with Zack Moss’ injury?

Biases aside, any Duck fan can empathize with the spot Utah finds itself in 24 hours before kickoff. In the past few days, the entire complexion of the offense has changed dramatically. Not only does Utah have to deal with the loss of quarterback Tyler Huntley, but they’re now faced with the reality that their all-conference caliber running back is shelved for the season as well. Make no mistake, an injury to just one of these players is a dizzying blow. Significant injuries to both is nothing short of a sports catastrophe. While tough and talented, the Utes aren’t a team that’s especially equipped to suffer two losses to two their top two offensive players. Few teams are, but this is a crippling blow nonetheless.

For Oregon, the challenge now will be familiarizing yourself with Utah’s depth at quarterback and running back and determining how to scheme up these virtual unknowns. The Ducks can safely assume that Jason Shelley will be the player taking Huntley’s place in the lineup, but the situation at running back for Utah is somewhat foggy. Junior Armand Shyne is the expected starter by virtue of being the most experienced back behind Moss. Though he’s been plagued by his own injuries throughout his career, Shyne has also had his moments while in a Ute uniform. In 2016, Shyne rushed for over 90 yards and at least one touchdown in three different games that season. He has rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns on 37 carries this season. Freshmen TJ Green and Devin Brumfield round out the supporting cast at running back, as the two have combined for 91 yards on 19 carries this season. Offensively, don’t be surprised to see the Oregon offense have a looser approach when it comes play-calling. Though the Utes’ pass defense has performed well this season, it can be had, as it’s the weakest part of the Ute defense. Defensively, look for the Ducks to take chances with a heavy dose of blitzes that look to cause disruption. The Utes have struggled to protect the quarterback this season, allowing the second-most sacks in the conference (24.0) entering Saturday’s game. With Utah down Huntley and Moss, expect Oregon to exploit this weakness even more.

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