Oregon’s bowl destination is officially set.

With college football’s championship weekend now wrapped up, matchups for all 39 bowl games (including the College Football Playoff Semifinal matchups, excluding the College Football Playoff National Championship Game) have been solidified. The Ducks are headed to the Bay Area to face Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl. Though the two teams have met several times before (and are scheduled to meet at least two more times in 2029 and 2030) during the regular season, the New Year’s Eve matchup will be the first time the Ducks and Spartans have met during the postseason.

Though the Redbox Bowl doesn’t quite carry the same level of prestige and historical reverence as the Holiday Bowl, Oregon’s preferred bowl choice following their 8-4 regular season finish, the game certainly won’t lack its fair share of intrigue – both in the matchup and in the storylines surrounding the game.

The biggest storyline by far, however, will be the one surrounding Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert and whether the game will be his last in a Duck uniform. On Sunday, Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal announced that Herbert is both healthy – after suffering a deep shoulder bruise in the first half of Oregon’s win over Oregon State – and expected to play versus Michigan State.

Cristobal on Herbert: “Justin is healthy and will play in the game.”

— Tyson Alger (@tysonalger) December 2, 2018

The news is obviously significant as it pertains to Oregon’s chances for victory in the game, but it’s perhaps even more significant as it relates to the immediate future of Oregon football.

In a trend that has become increasingly in vogue in recent years, players who plan to forego their final seasons of college eligibility and who are not participating in a New Year’s Six bowl game have elected to skip their team’s bowl game in order to avoid injury and begin preparation in earnest for the upcoming NFL draft. The Ducks experienced this first hand last season as running back Royce Freeman chose not to play in the Las Vegas Bowl versus Boise State.

Freeman’s decision was met with a fair amount of criticism, as the record-setting back still made the trip with the team to Vegas and was present on the Oregon sideline in street clothes to witness the 38-28 defeat to the Broncos. In a departure from last year, Cristobal stated Sunday that players not electing to play in the game will not be traveling with the team to its bowl destination. Though it doesn’t appear this particular mandate will apply to Herbert, his anticipated presence in the game will be the subject of intense speculation nonetheless.

Widely considered by many to be the first quarterback selected should he declare for the 2019 NFL Draft, Herbert would certainly fall into the “Freeman category” of players in recent years who have played it safe and elected not to play in their team’s bowl game. However, from the outside looking in, Sunday’s news is perhaps the strongest indication the public has received as it pertains to Herbert returning for his fourth and final season in Eugene.

Given the injury he suffered in the first half of the Civil War, not to mention the five games he missed last season due to a broken collarbone, Herbert is in many respects the perfect example of a player who would (understandably) otherwise sit out what essentially amounts to a glorified exhibition game before declaring for the draft.

That – as of today – doesn’t appear to be in the case, which begs the question, “If Herbert does declare for the draft following the bowl game, why make the decision to play in the first place?”

One could argue that Herbert wants one final opportunity to impress NFL scouts against what is arguably the best defense the Ducks will face this season in Michigan State. That opinion, however, would seem to carry little weight considering the fact that, despite a relatively lackluster season, Herbert is still considered by many to be the top quarterback prospect in what is generally regarded as a weak quarterback class.

Some may argue too that Herbert simply wants one last opportunity to play with his teammates, particularly after seeing his time in the Oregon State game cut short. Yet, that argument feels weak as well given the relative importance (or lack thereof) of the Redbox Bowl and the inherent and unnecessary risk he would be taking with his draft stock should he sustain a significant injury in that game. The risk-reward in that instance doesn’t seem to balance out in Herbert’s favor.

Duck fans and NFL brass will likely have to wait another month or so before an official decision from Herbert on his future is rendered, but if you’re paying close attention to the tea leaves, it would seem to indicate that both Herbert and those close to him (coaches included) are more optimistic than not that he’ll be back in 2019.