Game day is nearly here! And while roughly 24 hours separate us from the clash between no. 11 Oregon and no. 16 Auburn inside AT&T Stadium Saturday night in Arlington, the countdown to kickoff can’t come fast enough.
We’ve already discussed what’s at stake for Oregon in this game, we’ve closely examined the opponent, and have pondered a series of burning questions surrounding this game in the lead up to Saturday. All that’s left now is to break down what it will take for the Ducks to achieve victory, which would be their first over a ranked opponent to start the season since defeating no. 22 Wisconsin in 2001.
1. Win the battle at the line of scrimmage
Forget everything else that surrounds this game. The biggest harbinger of success for either team on Saturday boils down to who wins the monumental battle that’s set to take place at the line of scrimmage. Outside of quarterback Justin Herbert, the experience and depth of Oregon’s offensive line is the greatest area of strength the Ducks possess entering this game, and they’ll likely need every bit of it in order to knock off the Tigers.
By now, most people are familiar with the tremendous challenge that Auburn poses with their loaded defensive front. Derrick Brown, Nick Coe, and Marlon Davidson are three players with early-round NFL draft potential, and they are backed up by a group of talented and experienced reserves who offer very little drop off whenever a member of the Tigers’ big three needs a breather.
If the Ducks are to walk away from this game with the victory, they won’t need to dominate Auburn in the trenches. They will, however, need to do enough to give Herbert to time throw and provide Oregon’s running backs with enough running room to keep the chains moving and the offense balanced. It’s a tall order to be sure, but it’s one that this Oregon team is equipped to fulfill more so than any other Oregon team that has come before them.
2. Get the passing game on track
As difficult as it will be to win the absolute bar fight that’ll be taking place in the trenches, it may prove even more daunting for Oregon’s banged up receiving corp to find success against Auburn’s veteran-laded secondary. Without Brenden Schooler, Mycah Pittman, and JR Waters available, the Ducks will be largely dependent on Juwan Johnson, Johnny Johnson, and Jaylon Redd to be the difference makers for Herbert through the air.
The challenge, specifically, will come in trying to get separation from Auburn’s corners, who are some of the fastest players on the Tigers’ roster. Outside of Redd, the Ducks won’t counter with a ton of speed, but between the Johnson boys, Bryan Addison, and their tight ends, Oregon does have big, physical pass catchers that may be able to win one-on-one battles if Herbert is throwing in rhythm.
Similar to the offensive line, Oregon’s receivers don’t necessarily need to win every opportunity they get, but they will need to come up with timely catches that keep drives alive, plus make two or three big plays downfield that keeps the Auburn defense honest.
3. Frustrate and confuse Bo Nix
Generally speaking, the Tigers don’t really lack for experience throughout their roster. However, the one area where they are grossly inexperienced just so happens to be at the most critical position on the field – quarterback. On Saturday, Bo Nix will be the first true freshman in over 70 years to make his collegiate debut in an Auburn season opener. A five-star recruit from Pinson Valley High School in Pinson, Ala., Nix has essentially been a Tiger since birth, as his father, Patrick Nix, was the Auburn quarterback from 1992-95. The gaudy numbers Nix put up has as a Alabama high school legend (over 12,000 yards of total offense, 161 total touchdowns) suggest he’s both a threat to beat you with his arm and his legs, making him relatively difficult to game plan for. After all, no one – except for the Auburn coaches – can accurately evaluate how his strengths and weaknesses translate to the collegiate level.
Yet, despite the some of the murkiness surrounding Nix’s game, the Ducks can rest assured that the intensity of the moment will be unlike anything he’s experienced to this point in his football career. With that, it’s a good bet that Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos will be reaching deep into his bag to do whatever he can to fluster and confuse Nix. Whether it’s employing pre-snap movement, disguising blitzes, or dropping guys into coverage and forcing him to read the defense, Oregon’s ability to deceive Nix, accelerate the flow of information he has to process, and force him into mistakes could go a long way towards tilting the odds significantly in their favor.