The chance to exorcise some lingering demons from last week’s gutting loss to Auburn stands before the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks when they take the field late Saturday afternoon vs. Nevada.
Outside the program, chatter for the last several days has centered on what ultimately went wrong for the Ducks in a game that had been heavily tilted in their favor for the better part of three quarters. Inside the program, however, that focus should have shifted days ago, with the understanding that the goals set before the start of the season still remain attainable provided internal belief remains steadfast.
As we look ahead to Saturday, WFOD examines the keys to victory for Oregon over Nevada.
1. Flush the Auburn game
We mentioned it before, but it’s worth mentioning once again: Every goal the Ducks had prior to the season is still within grasp despite last week’s loss to Auburn. There’s no debate that Oregon let a potential program-shifting opportunity slip through their fingers deep in the heart of Texas, but with Nevada making their way to Eugene, it’s vitally important that the Ducks flush any residual angst that has been left over.
Coming off an eight-win season which included a bowl victory in 2018, the Wolf Pack are already off to a hot start in 2019, as their dramatic 34-31 win over Purdue in Reno catapulted Nevada into the national conscious and validated their capacity to spring an upset. That, juxtaposed with Oregon’s deflating result vs. Auburn, sets the foundation for what could be another sour Saturday for the Ducks should their focus be in the wrong place. If the Ducks have truly put in the work to take the steps towards building a championship program under head coach Mario Cristobal, they’ll need to prove it by taking out all their anger and frustration against Nevada en route to a rousing, confidence-restoring victory.
2. Get the offense clicking early and often
The Oregon offense has been a major point of consternation for Duck fans for practically a full calendar year, as last week’s loss to Auburn only served to stoke the flames of criticism surrounding Ducks offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo. In truth, the Oregon offense actually did some good things against a rugged Tigers defense last week. Yes, the second half saw the offense’s production grind to a near halt, particularly on the ground (only 13 second half rushing yards). Yet, given the strength of Auburn’s defensive line, coupled with the depleted receiver group the Ducks were relying on, it’s a mild surprise (through these eyes, at least) that Oregon was able to post 332 yards of total offense.
The key here for Oregon on Saturday is three-fold: 1) Get off to a fast start in the first half, 2) Piece together sustained drives that end in touchdowns instead of scoreless possessions, and 3) Maintain consistency for all four quarters. The first item was something that the Ducks executed to near perfection vs. Auburn. The second and third items, not so much, as two Oregon trips to the red zone in the first half ended with the Ducks coming away with no points, while the second half was essentially a blood letting, as the Oregon offense generated hardly any momentum against an Auburn defense that was playing with growing confidence.
Nevada won’t pose the same kind of challenge that Auburn did defensively, but it’s all the more reason why the Ducks should play with increased efficiency on offense this Saturday.
3. Shake Carson Strong’s confidence
While the Oregon offense looks to regain its confidence this weekend, the Oregon defense will aim to do all it can to shake the confidence of Nevada redshirt freshman quarterback Carson Strong. In his collegiate debut vs. Purdue last week, Strong was instrumental in helping lead the Wolf Pack’s 17-point comeback victory. His 295 yards and three touchdowns through the air provided the Nevada offense with a serious lift that helped complement the ground threat the Wolf Pack possess in sophomore running back Toa Taua, the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year.
Strong shined brightly on a big stage last week, but the stakes will be even higher this week as he prepares to face off against an Oregon defense that may prove to be one of the most improved overall units in the Pac-12 Conference. After formulating a sound game plan to disrupt the rhythm of Auburn true freshman quarterback Bo Nix a week ago in Texas, the onus will be on Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos to once again cultivate disruption that puts pressure on a young quarterback to make plays in an unfamiliar and hostile environment.
I know this is the wrong article for this email, and you dont even need to post it if you want, but i did an Oregon offense film breakdown of every play, and charted which player or coach made the mistake on each unsuccessful play. I found myself as scout (and yes i used to scout football games) at odds with myself as a fan, the perspective from which my last email was written.
Contrary to my “fan” email of a couple days ago in which i hasically blamed the play calling and game management, i found only two plays which i felt had no chance to be successful before the players lined up, ie ‘coaches play calling fault’. These were of course magnified because of the timing of the failed play calls which had no chance of being successful; yet only two truly bad play calls in an entire game i would rate as much better than respectable play calling.
While Addison’s drop was spectacularly bad timing, he was one of 9 players who had only one ‘play failing’ mistake, quite within the bounds of ‘good and even excellent play’ by a player. The 3 notable areas of concern, other than the aforementioned two play calls were:
1. Right guard: The combination of Warmack and Jones at right guard made 4 play destroying reps, including one on which Warmack got blown back into the backfield about 6 yards on a goal line play from Auburn’s three yard line. This might only have been because of Auburn’s outstanding defensive line, and may not be quite as big an issue going foreard, although i am sure opponents’ coaches will see the same thing in their tape study.
Hopefully Jones or another guard on the team can establish himself as on par with the remaining 4 players on the line before Pac 12 play begins.
2. Running back: Verdell and Dye were unable to passblock Auburn’s pass rushers when blitzing, leading to the majority of sacks or hurries upon Herbert. Except for hoping that no other team has the ‘horses’ to rush the passer as Auburn has, keeping a tight end / Hback in to block and sending the running back out into the pattern instead, or somehow turning CHL into a complete back in 3 weeks’ time., I see no solution for this problem. The other running back fails came from the ongoing lack of vision, mainly from Verdell, along with the inability to make a defender miss. I don’t see this changing either, unless Felix or Dollars receive more reps and turn into an answer.
3. I must tread very carefully here, but by far the largest number of ‘play failing’ mistakes made by anyone was our senior QB. In today’s game of reading and options and RPO’s along with just the fact that a QB handles the ball and makes decisions every play, he should have the most mistakes made in a game and still be an effective, game winning quarterback. Unfortunately, playing at that position, even without making the commonly noticed mistake of throwing an interception, other play failing mistakes can be made. I counted 12 such plays: cheifly being, along with the fumble and a couple bad throws; not seeing wide open receivers and making wrong reads, decisions which if properly made could have turned some of those plays into successes. No quarteback will ever make every split second decision correctly, but if that failure rate had been cut in half for let’s say 4 more successful plays, ie: first downs…… I know that some doubt if Justin can do this, but i believe he can improve in this area.
Thanks for taking the time, Doneal!
I think this weekend will go a ways in terms of informing us what this team is capable of and what their flaws are. Certainly some of that was exposed against Auburn, but I think it’s easy for all of us to issue referendums after just one game. This team will continue to grow and evolve as the season unfolds and I think Nevada will provide a solid barometer for where Oregon is at early on.
You bring up some great points – the part about Warmack is something to watch, in my opinion, as I think he had some tough moments in that game. Again though, gotta credit Auburn I think for what they have on that side of the ball.
I’m eager to see what tweaks, if any, we see this weekend.