With an undefeated league record and a two-game lead on the rest of the teams in the Pac-12 North, the 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks stand on the precipice of a potentially season-defining game.
By earning a win over no. 25 Washington, the Ducks can practically punch their ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game with a month and half remaining in the regular season, as Oregon will own potential tie-breaking wins over the perceived class in the division in Cal, Stanford, and the Huskies.
A loss, however, brings the Ducks back to the pack. Yes, they’ll maintain their outright lead in the division, but with difficult tests on the horizon headlined by games vs. Washington State and at USC and Arizona State, the race for the Pac-12 title bid in the North becomes much more uncertain.
Perhaps even more so than the season opener vs. Auburn, Saturday’s game in Seattle between the Ducks and Huskies is the biggest swing game on the schedule for Oregon with regard to what can be achieved over the final half of the season. WFOD breaks it all down by analyzing the biggest questions entering Saturday’s much anticipated showdown.
1. How does Oregon account for the loss of Jacob Breeland?
This is far and away the biggest question on the minds of Duck fans heading into this weekend’s game at Washington. Before suffering a season-ending injury last week vs. Colorado, tight end Jacob Breeland was on his way to having a career year in his final season in an Oregon uniform. His 26 catches for 405 yards and six touchdowns were among some of the best numbers at the tight end position nationally, not to mention Breeland had only just begun to acquit himself as one of the top draft-eligible tight end prospects heading into next April’s NFL draft. Unfortunately, that all takes a back seat to rehabilitation for Breeland, whose football career at Oregon comes to a bitter end.
Conversely, the task of replacing Breeland now begins in earnest, and the schedule doesn’t do the Ducks any favors as it relates to easing in potential replacements for the star pass catcher. Veterans Hunter Kampmoyer and Ryan Bay are the first in line to help make up for the loss of Breeland, but neither player has demonstrated anywhere near the receiving chops of their injured teammate. For their careers, Bay and Kampmoyer have combined for just 16 catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns, as both players have been primarily used as blockers. Redshirt freshman Spencer Webb and true freshman Patrick Herbert are two players who most closely resemble Breeland in terms of skill set, but neither player has garnered enough consistent playing time to be reliably counted upon heading into Saturday.
In the end, the burden of replacing Breeland’s production most likely falls to Oregon’s now healthy receiving corp, led primarily by Johnny Johnson, Jaylon Redd, and Mycah Pittman, who currently appear to be the most equipped to pick up the slack in Breeland’s absence.
2. How do the Ducks handle the hostile road environment?
The season opener vs. Auburn inside Jerry World in Arlington was a tremendous primer for what the Ducks can expect in terms of the hype and intensity that will surround Husky Stadium Saturday afternoon. However, that game doesn’t quite match the hostility the Ducks will face playing as the favorite in front of the boisterous Washington faithful. As critical a game as this is for Oregon in extending their lead in the Pac-12 North, it’s just as critical for Washington, who would still remain firmly in the hunt for a berth in the Pac-12 Championship if they pull off the upset.
Against Auburn, the Ducks certainly played well enough to win, though fell just short of finishing the job. That, however, is more than can be said for some of their previous appearances in true road games the past few seasons. In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, Oregon is 5-12 in true road games, losing by average score of 27.9-33.4. Given the apparent strides the Ducks have made over the offseason and carrying over into the current season, this feels like a group capable of being on the winning side of that average margin in this game. Until this team under Mario Cristobal proves they’ve exorcised those demons, however, it’s anyone’s guess how they’ll perform in their latest pressure packed situation as the visitors.
3. Can Oregon carry over the well-rounded play from the Colorado game?
By now, the Oregon defense has proven itself as a formidable unit that is firmly among the nation’s best both statistically and from a pure talent standpoint. The question this season, instead, has been about the offense. Injuries to key receivers and an inconsistent running game have been unnerving facts of life for those who follow the team, though they seemed to move past those some of those concerns against a beleaguered Colorado defense last week. Against the Buffs, the Ducks put together their most complete offensive performance of the season, employing a balanced attack on the ground and through the air en route to 45 points and 527 yards of total offense.
The challenge this Saturday at Washington figures to be exponentially more difficult compared to what the Ducks faced vs. Colorado, but there is something to be said about momentum. If Oregon can manage the loss of Breeland without too much grief, make the most of their opportunities on offense by playing mistake-free football, and lean on a defense that has had remarkable success in all phases, that feels like an executable recipe for success based on what we witnessed last week.