Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal has been consistent with his message all season long, that the current week’s game is the biggest game of the season because it’s the next game on the schedule.
And while Cristobal is absolutely correct in that regard, he’d likely admit behind closed doors that this week’s game carries just a tinge more importance than your typical Saturday tilt. That’s because this week Oregon heads to SoCal to take on wounded, yet dangerous USC; a team that still has plenty to play for despite their 5-3 overall record.
Of course, at 7-1 overall and with a spotless 5-0 record in conference play, the Ducks have much more at stake, particularly as it relates to the national picture and the College Football Playoff. Win, and Oregon likely creeps up the national polls and remains squarely in the hunt for a playoff berth. Lose, and the Ducks are all but eliminated from the national title discussion, though will have still have their dreams of landing in the Rose Bowl intact.
Whether it’s coach speak or not, the biggest game of the year is nearly here. With that, WFOD examines the keys to victory for the Ducks over the Trojans.
1. A return to form from the Oregon secondary
It’s been a popular talking point for the past two weeks for a reason. In Oregon’s last two games, the Ducks’ secondary, despite their lofty ranking as the second-best pass defense in the Pac-12, has been used and abused by a pair of teams in Washington and Washington State who boast terrific quarterback play.
On one hand, it stands to reason that a regression to the mean was in store for the Ducks defending the pass. After all, until the previous two weeks, the Oregon secondary hadn’t faced a quarterback – or really an offense – that was especially capable of challenging them through the air. Fans can point to the Ducks’ performance against Colorado as an example of the Oregon secondary shutting down a potent passing offense, but the truth is the Buffs were not at 100% in that game, as star receivers Laviska Shenault and K.D. Nixon were battling through injuries despite appearing in that contest.
On the other hand, it’s hard to say that anyone expected the Ducks to take such a significant step back against the Washington schools, as the Oregon defense surrendered an average of 440 yards of total offense (6.7 yards/play) and 33 points in those games. By comparison, the Ducks had only surrendered an average of 267.7 yards of total offense (3.94 yards/play) and a paltry 8.7 points per contest in the six games prior.
Going up against a USC offense that ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in total offense (442.4), fourth in yards per play (6.52), and second in passing offense (296.1), and not to mention possesses some of the best skill position talent in the conference, it’s a bad “get right” opportunity for a group on a slide. The defense’s ability to hold up – particularly in the secondary – against quarterback Kedon Slovis and his tremendous trio of wide receivers in Michael Pittman, Jr., Tyler Vaughns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown will be key. In USC’s three losses this season, turnovers by the offense have been a general theme that has prevented the Trojans from winning. Oregon’s ability to limit big plays through the air and perhaps force a couple turnovers will be a harbinger for potential success come Saturday.
2. Keep the ground game rollin’
A major component to Oregon’s success through the month of October was their ability to find serious traction in the running game. Operating behind an offensive line that is finally living up to its lofty potential, Oregon’s running backs have been taking full advantage. In October, the Ducks averaged 225.5 yards rushing per game and scored nine rushing touchdowns, as CJ Verdell and Cyrus Habibi-Likio have largely paced the offense with their effort on the ground. Verdell, in particular, has been a revelation in recent weeks, as he now leads the conference in rushing yards (753) thanks to monster efforts vs. Colorado (171 yards rushing) and Washington State (257 yards rushing, three touchdowns).
On the flip side, the Trojans have been downright woeful this season, but especially in October, stopping the run. Currently ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in rushing defense (190.1 yards/game), USC ranked even worse in October alone, finishing 11th in the conference surrendering 215.3 yards per game. In fact, only Washington State was worse (218 yards/game) against the run last month. If the Ducks can find similar success against USC on the ground as they did against the Cougars last week, it may be all Oregon needs to come away with an important road win.
3. Win the turnover battle
We touched on it briefly in the first section, but Oregon’s ability to win the turnover battle this weekend could prove essential to earning the “W.” Of course, you could say that about any football game, but the Ducks’ ability to force turnovers in this game could be especially critical.
Through eight games, Oregon ranks tops in the conference and tied for third nationally in turnover margin at +11, and it’s hard to argue that the Ducks’ propensity for taking care of the ball on offense and forcing teams into mistakes on defense hasn’t already paid major dividends. Look no further than last week vs. Washington State, as a Verone McKinley’s red zone interception and a Jevon Holland’s pick-six (plus no turnovers on offense) were instrumental in helping Oregon earn the win. By contrast, the Trojans rank last in the conference in turnover margin (-0.75) and currently reside 118th nationally in the category.
Top Photo: Oregon CB Thomas Graham (Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)