The final true road test of the season looms just over the horizon for the Oregon Ducks, who head into the weekend ranked no. 6 in the College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings for a second straight week.
For Oregon, it’s the penultimate hurdle of the regular season schedule, as they set to face a Sun Devils team that is heading in a diametrically opposite direction compared to the strong 5-1 start they posted over the first half of the season. Yet, despite being losers of four straight, Arizona State poses some very real issues that the Ducks will have to contend with and overcome should they continue their quest towards solidifying a potential berth in the College Football Playoff.
With Oregon and ASU a day removed from squaring off in prime time, WFOD takes a closer look at the keys to victory for the Ducks in the desert.
1. Rattle Jayden Daniels
Though he may be listed as a true freshman on the Sun Devils’ roster, Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels has not performed like a true freshman in his nine starts this season. In fact, Daniels is tied with Oregon State’s Jake Luton and Cal’s Chase Garbers for third in the Pac-12 in fewest interceptions thrown among quarterbacks with 120 or more pass attempts (2). Couple that with Daniels’ 61.4% completion rate, 2,236 yards, and 14 touchdowns, and it’s clear that the upside is sky-scraping for a player who Ducks cornerback Thomas Graham calls the “best freshman quarterback in the country.”
However, as rosy as that sounds if you’re an ASU fan, the Ducks come to Tempe sporting one of the nation’s most opportunistic defenses (tied for second nationally in turnover margin, plus-13) and a secondary, in particular, that is among the stingiest in the entire conference (second in the Pac-12 in passing defense at 205.2 yards/game). Not only that, but Oregon excels at getting after the quarterback, as the Ducks lead the Pac-12 in sacks (32.0). Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, as good as Daniels has been this season, the offensive line has done a poor job of protecting the young quarterback having surrendered 25.0 sacks as a unit this season. If the Ducks can at the very least apply pressure and force Daniels to have happy feet in the pocket, it could be the foundation Oregon needs to come away with a dominant road victory.
2. Challenge the Sun Devil secondary
For all of the perceived talent that Arizona State has in the back end of its defense, the Sun Devil secondary has underwhelmed for much of the season. Entering Saturday’s game, the Sun Devils rank seventh in the conference in passing defense having surrendered 270.9 yards per contest to opponents. If that weren’t enough, Arizona State also lays claim to the second-worst touchdown to interception ratio in the Pac-12, as the Devils have given up 19 touchdowns through the air to just four interceptions.
Though the Ducks will be without talented true freshman wide receiver Mycah Pittman in this game, Oregon should still have plenty of firepower at their disposal with Justin Herbert throwing to Juwan Johnson, Jaylon Redd, and Johnny Johnson; a trio that has seen their profile elevate in a major way the past few weeks as they head down the final stretch of the regular season. If the Ducks can find success through the air, it should eventually open things up for Oregon on the ground, which is ultimately where Mario Cristobal wants this game won.
3. Win third down
Winning third down is important in every game, but when facing an opponent that has struggled offensively for most of the year, it becomes even more important when trying to deny that team an upset bid. Offensively, the Ducks have been quite strong on third down this season, converting 46.51% of their tries, which ranks second in the Pac-12 to Utah. Conversely, the ASU defense has been just okay stopping teams on third down, ranking sixth in the conference in opponent third down conversion percentage (43.42%).
Similar to the Oregon offense, the Oregon defense has also been terrific on third downs through 10 games this season. Opposing offenses move the chains just 34.39% of the time on third down against the Duck defense, which also ranks second in the conference behind Utah. When Arizona State has the ball on third down, they’ve generally struggled, currently ranking ninth in the conference (40.58%) heading into Saturday’s game. Herm Edwards’ teams at ASU have typically enjoyed success when they’ve been able to dominate time of possession and limit their opponents’ opportunities to score. If the Ducks can have success extending drives and punctuating them with touchdowns on offense, while also forcing ASU into routine three-and-outs when the Ducks take the field on defense, it’s hard to imagine that adding up to anything other than an Oregon victory.
Top Photo: Oregon LB La’Mar Winston (Oregon Athletics)