With Oregon’s loss to Arizona State this past Saturday, the ultimate prize that had been well within reach for the Ducks in 2019 has unofficially fallen by the wayside.
Unofficially only because the Ducks still have about a one percent chance of making the College Football Playoff should a rash of upsets consume the sport between now and the end of the conference championship games less than two weeks from now. Unfortunately for Oregon, there is likely a better chance that ASU’s Jayden Daniels connects with receiver Brandon Aiyuk for an 81-yard coffin-nailing touchdown on 3rd and 16 in the fourth quarter than there is of the Ducks backing their way into the final four this season.
For a team that has made tremendous progress since last season and was in position to cap off what could have been an improbable playoff run, a loss like the one suffered Saturday makes the duality between the thrill of victory and agony of defeat that much more poignant. Yet, while the Ducks will almost assuredly miss out on playing for the whole enchilada in year two under head coach Mario Cristobal, there still remains a prime opportunity for Oregon to surpass the expectations that the majority of level-headed Duck fans had for this team before the season began.
The critical question that must be answered now is, can Oregon turn the page emotionally and seamlessly re-calibrate their goal from making the playoff to clinching a berth in the Rose Bowl?
For weeks, and for better or worse, those in and around the program have been singularly focused on reaching the College Football Playoff, regardless of what you may have heard from the team about adopting a “1-0 mentality” entering each and every week. Now that that opportunity has been effectively erased, how does this team pull itself together after getting knocked to the mat in gut-wrenching fashion for a second time this season?
In his press conference immediately following the loss to Arizona State, Cristobal said that defeats such as the one suffered by the Ducks on Saturday can either tear a team apart or bring them closer together. If history is any indication of what’s to come, Oregon has often responded emphatically after tough losses under Cristobal. After the crushing overtime loss to Stanford last season, the Ducks went on the road to beat Cal 42-24. Following the last-minute loss to Auburn in the season opener this season, the Ducks looked like a well-oiled machine in their 77-6 annihilation of Nevada, who had just come off a last second win over Purdue the week before. This team has proven itself to be a resilient group the past couple seasons, though this recent loss is one in which the pain could especially linger given the consequences it had for Oregon’s loftiest postseason hopes.
Specifically, it will be curious to see how two of the team’s most stable pillars will respond after having their foundation rocked this past weekend. In the case of Justin Herbert, his performance against the Sun Devils will be remembered by Duck fans for the inaccurate throws and suspect decision making that was typified by his interceptions on back-to-back possessions with Oregon deep in its own territory. For Herbert, it was his by far his least impressive outing of the entire season, and one that may ultimately cost him stacks of cash as NFL coaches and general managers critically evaluate the very real holes in his game heading into next year’s NFL draft.
It will also be interesting to see how Oregon’s defense responds after getting shelled by an inconsistent Arizona State offense that gained a season-high 535 yards of total offense against one of the best defensive units (statistically speaking) in the Pac-12. The Duck secondary, in particular, will have plenty to answer for as a potent Oregon State pass attack comes to town after ASU’s Jayden Daniels exposed this group by completing just over 68% of his passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns.
In some ways, the importance of the next two weeks for Oregon hasn’t really change with the loss to Arizona State. The Ducks still need to win both games if they are to validate both the championship culture that Cristobal has preached, not to mention the marked improvement that the team has undoubtedly made given the results on the field. A trip to the Rose Bowl would help cement those feelings, providing Cristobal and the Ducks with even more momentum as they put the finishing touches on their 2020 recruiting class and head into another offseason filled with abundant optimism for the future.
A loss or two over the next couple weeks, however, will leave the door open for doubters who argue that the Oregon program is still far removed from the national power they proved to be from 2009-2014. Missing out on the College Football Playoff is one thing, but falling short of the Rose Bowl is another, especially considering the way Ducks had largely dominated their schedule between the Auburn game and last weekend’s loss to Arizona State. Fair or unfair, anything less than a Rose Bowl berth would leave many around the program, fans included, believing they perhaps deserved a better fate.
Make no mistake, given the importance of these next two weeks, the Oregon program has a reached a crossroads of sorts as it relates to this season and the potential trajectory of the program in the near future. Their ability to flush the ASU loss, turn the page, and make good on the promise they have demonstrated over the better part of the year may very well define an important chapter in a yet to be determined legacy for this program under this coach.
Top Photo: Oregon QB Justin Herbert (Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports)