Civil War week is well underway, and as those outside the Oregon football program take time to indulge the rivalry in between snacking on Thanksgiving leftovers, those inside the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex are fine tuning a game plan they hope delivers a much different result than the Ducks got last week in Tempe.
With a seemingly rejuvenated Oregon State team headed to Eugene this Saturday, there’s no time to stop and smell the roses, particularly if Oregon wants to best position itself to do just that on January 1 in Pasadena. While a loss to the Beavers wouldn’t eliminate the Ducks from punching their ticket to the Rose Bowl, it would certainly be an awkward and foreboding way to arrive in Santa Clara for next week’s Pac-12 Championship Game if Oregon doesn’t come away with a victory this weekend on Senior Day.
As kickoff to the 123rd edition of the Civil War nears, WFOD examines the keys to victory for the Ducks over the Beavers.
1. Put a lid on the Oregon State pass attack
Putting a lid on any opponent’s passing game has been an absolute struggle for the Ducks in recent weeks, as the secondary has been bombed on over the course of the their last five outings. We mentioned this in our “Burning Questions” piece on Thursday, but over the last five games, the Oregon defense has surrendered an average of 299.8 yards through the air to go along with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. This is in stark contrast to the numbers Andy Avalos’ crew was responsible for over the first half of the season, as the Ducks had allowed just 160.1 yards passing per game and three touchdowns while coming away with 12 interceptions.
The Beavers rank as the Pac-12’s best team in terms of limiting turnovers, having given the ball away just five times this season, so it’s likely that Oregon will have to rely sound coverage and strong tackling – two things that eluded them in a glaring way at Arizona State – to hold Oregon State in check through the air. That’s easier said than done, as Beavers quarterback Jake Luton has been a revelation this season throwing for 2,714 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Not only that, but Luton has a big-time target to throw to in Isaiah Hodgins, a 6-foot-4, 209-pound playmaker who currently leads the conference in touchdown catches with 13. If the Ducks can shore up their woeful deficiencies in the passing game and find a way to contain the Beavers’ downfield threat, it should swing things dramatically in Oregon’s favor.
2. Make Justin Herbert comfortable
For one reason or another, the first half has proven to be a notable challenge for Justin Herbert particularly since the Washington game in mid-October. Inaccuracy, questionable decision-making, and breakdowns in the pocket have all combined to contribute to slow starts for Herbert, who is coming off arguably one of his flattest performances in a big game in his career. Herbert, however, doesn’t deserve to shoulder all of the blame, as Oregon’s offensive line has been decidedly average this season when it comes to providing him with the protection he needs to effectively make plays from the pocket (currently ranked fifth in the league in sacks allowed – 20.0).
With his shaky performance at ASU still no doubt fresh in Herbert’s mind, it’s incumbent on the coaches and the offensive line to help their quarterback purge the bad taste from his mouth and help him settle into a rhythm that allows him to deliver the football with confidence. It won’t be easy against one of the nation’s best pass rushers in Hamilcar Rashed, but it could prove critical should the Ducks find themselves in a shootout.
3. Dominate the line of scrimmage
Oregon State’s defense has been dreadful for much of the year, but the most vulnerable part of that soft underbelly has been the Beavers’ rush defense, which ranks 10th in the Pac-12 (167.55 yards/game) entering Saturday’s contest. For much of the season, the Ducks have strangely oscillated between a team that has been very effective running the ball and one where the ground attack has been full-on underwhelming. And often times, the caliber of the opponent has had little bearing on Oregon’s successes or failures in their efforts to establish the run.
Take for instance last week at Arizona State. The Sun Devils entered the game as the Pac-12’s third-best team against the run, though the Ducks managed to have remarkable success on the ground (154 yards on 28 carries) – particularly in the first half – despite the fact that Oregon’s passing game was largely missing in action for most of the game. Against Arizona two weeks ago, however, Oregon labored to find traction on the ground against the conference’s worst rushing defense, gaining just 138 yards on 39 carries (3.54 yards/carry). Surprisingly, it was Oregon’s third-worst rushing performance of the season behind Auburn (expectedly) and Stanford (currently ranked 7th in the Pac-12 in rushing defense). This would suggest that the Ducks’ focus has waned depending on the perception of the opponent they’re facing. In a game that is important to regaining some of the mojo this team had over the course of their nine-game winning streak, Oregon cannot afford to take Oregon State lightly. Dominating the line of scrimmage and establishing the run in a significant way is the most direct path to success for the Ducks in this game.
Top Photo: Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal (Jennifer Buchanan/USA TODAY Sports)