The pomp and circumstance surrounding Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game pitting no. 13 Oregon and no. 5 Utah has undoubtedly lost some of its luster these past few weeks. The fault of which falls squarely on the shoulders of the Ducks, who stumbled two weeks ago vs. Arizona State in Tempe before trudging their way to an uninspiring 24-10 win over Oregon State in the Civil War to close out the regular season.
Originally expected to be the showcase game in the Pac-12 this season, with the winner moving on to the College Football Playoff, the game now features an Oregon team that looks to play playoff spoiler for Utah, while also seeking their first conference title and Rose Bowl berth since 2014. So yes, the stakes remain high, but the headlines are less juicy and the ultimate prize has been diminished some for at least one of the teams involved.
Through the eyes of the Pac-12 Conference though, Friday’s game certainly expects to generate more excitement for the conference compared to last year’s 10-3 snooze fest in Santa Clara between the Utes and Washington Huskies, as no College Football Playoff implications were on the line whatsoever in a contest that featured a pair of 9-3 teams.
With both the Ducks and Utes working off a short week in preparation for Friday’s game, WFOD addresses the most pressing questions surrounding Oregon before they do battle with Utah in the Bay Area.
1. Can Oregon generate anything on offense?
This isn’t the question you want to be asking this late in the season with hands down your most difficult game ahead of you. But alas, here we are asking this very question of the Oregon offense just days before their Pac-12 Championship tilt vs. Utah. Prior to the Ducks’ bye week in early November, the Oregon offense was playing some of its most efficient football under head coach Mario Cristobal and offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo. Through the first nine games of the season, the Ducks averaged just over 38 points per game, which included a 56-point outburst on the road at USC just before the bye. Since then, Oregon has averaged just 28.7 points per contest, with arguably their worst performance of the year coming last Saturday against an Oregon State defense that ranks among the worst in the Pac-12 this season in a myriad of defensive categories.
In this space, we’ve entertained the idea that the Ducks have had a habit the past two seasons of playing up and down to the level of their competition, which would make one think that Oregon is due for a rebound performance this Friday vs. the Utes. That, however, should be somewhat of an unsettling trait if you’re a fan of this team. For one, championship caliber teams don’t allow the perceived skill level of their opponent affect their ability to execute at a high level on game day. Secondly, and more specific to this upcoming game, Oregon is playing the fool should they expect things to suddenly fall into place against a Utah defense that ranks first nationally in rushing defense (56.25 yards/game), third in total defense (241.6 yards/game), and fourth in opponent QB rating (107.53). Whether it’s a matter of mental preparedness or something else, the Ducks must find a way to be far more efficient on offense than they have been the last two weeks if they are to have even a puncher’s chance at knocking off Utah.
2. Can Oregon’s defense find a way to make the Utah offense one-dimensional?
This has been the challenge for just about every team that has faced Utah this season. Unlike many Utah teams of the recent past, this Utah team is remarkably balanced, averaging a conference best 214.58 yards per game on the ground, while averaging 239 yards per game through the air on the arm of the Pac-12’s most efficient quarterback in Tyler Huntley.
Solving the Rubik’s Cube that is Utah’s defense is one thing, but Oregon can help itself exponentially in this game if they can find a way to prevent the Utes from playing complementary football on offense. To do that, Oregon’s defense is likely going to have to rely on their rugged rushing defense – which currently ranks second in the Pac-12 (106.08 yards/game) – to limit the impact of Utah running back Zack Moss and force Huntley to throw the ball 30 or more times in this game. Only twice this season has Huntley thrown the ball 30 or more times. The first was against USC on the road, marking Utah’s only loss of the season. The second was the following week vs. Washington State, which the Utes won in a 38-13 route. It’s far from a fail-safe approach to put the game in Huntley’s hands, but it might be the Ducks’ best chance at toppling Utah.
3. What could the outcome of Friday’s game mean for the Ducks moving forward?
Even with the diminished possibilities for the Ducks, Friday’s game has the potential to be a watershed moment for this program in the post-Rich Brooks/Mike Bellotti/Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era. Each of those previous coaches descended from the person before him, as the culture surrounding Oregon football was passed down like an oral tradition. With that line officially breaking with the hiring of Willie Taggart following the 2016 season, the expectations may have remained the same, but a new approach and way of doing things was established. Fast forward three full seasons, and the Ducks are on the precipice of returning to the lofty perch that had been set as the standard for this program both within the conference and nationally.
With a win, Oregon clinches a berth in the Rose Bowl, providing Mario Cristobal with an opportunity to validate not only the momentum he’s been building for the Ducks on the recruiting trail, but further establish Oregon as the “it” program in the Pac-12 and West Coast at large. Especially with other notable programs in the conference in a relative state of flux considering the transition from Chris Petersen to Jimmy Lake at Washington, and the potential fallout at USC should Clay Helton be retained or let go, there’s a window of opportunity for Oregon to also position itself as the Pac-12’s most stable program for the foreseeable future.
A loss, however, while it won’t ruin what has undeniably been another step in a positive direction for Cristobal at Oregon, will leave Duck fans with a bitter taste in their mouths considering the terrific run the team was on from September through October and into mid-November. To go from missing out on a possible berth in the College Football Playoff, to potentially missing out on the Rose Bowl and landing in the Alamo Bowl would be a disheartening tumble to say the least. Not only would it cast a rather uneasy pall over the program heading into a 2020 campaign that will see Oregon replace Justin Herbert, a slew of veteran offensive linemen, and a handful of key contributors on defense (including Troy Dye), but it would call into question the program’s ability to take that necessary next step under Cristobal. After all, if Oregon was unable to seize the conference with a potential first round pick at quarterback, college football’s most veteran offensive line, and one of the deepest and most talented defenses in the Pac-12, when will they? These dueling narratives, in essence, hang in the balance depending on the outcome of Friday’s game.
Top Photo: Oregon WR Johnny Johnson (Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)