As big as Oregon’s season opener vs. Auburn was at Jerry World earlier this year, Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game vs. 5th-ranked Utah is unequivocally the most meaningful game the Oregon football program has participated in over the last five years.
Indeed, the 2015 College Football Playoff National Championship Game is the closest and most recent thing that compares to the magnitude and potential ripple effect of what a win in this game would mean for the Ducks. Of course, the same can also be said, if not more so, for the Utes, who are seeking their first win in a conference championship game in program history, not to mention a berth in the College Football Playoff. A win for them would catapult the Utah program into a never before seen stratosphere for the folks in Salt Lake City.
Recent weeks may have removed some of the shine that had been glinting off Friday’s matchup, but stakes remain high and the anticipation remains real for both sides entering the game. With kickoff drawing near, WFOD examines the keys to victory for the Ducks over the Utes.
1. Win the battle at the line of scrimmage
Perhaps nothing is more fundamental to victory for either team than winning the head-to-head battle that is to be waged at the line of scrimmage in this game. Specifically, the most anticipated matchup within the game itself will feature Oregon’s veteran-laden offensive line vs. Utah’s suffocating and unrelenting defensive line.
Led by soon-to-be All-American left tackle Penei Sewell, the Ducks boast the nation’s most experienced offensive line, which has a combined 213 career starts to their name entering Friday’s game. The group as a whole has endured a bit of an up and down 2019 season, as there has seemingly been as many dominant performances as there has been underwhelming ones. The good news is that this talented group has often been at its best when facing the best competition on its schedule. The Auburn game to kickoff the year was a monumental test for Oregon’s offensive line, as the Tigers’ defensive line was widely considered to be the best in the nation. As a unit, the Ducks’ offensive line largely passed that test, but the challenge figures to be just as fierce against Utah. Up front, the Utes lay claim to a defensive line is that is arguably performing better than any position group nationally. And the stats back it up, as the Utes lead the nation in rushing defense (56.25 yards/game) and yards per carry allowed (2.26), while also ranking third nationally on opponent third down conversions on 3rd and short (9).
On the flip side, the Utes have been very effective moving the ball on the ground, as they rank first in the Pac-12 in rushing offense (214.58 yards/game) by a margin of 36 yards per game over the next closest team. At 5-foot-10 and 222 pounds, senior running back Zack Moss has been a sledgehammer wielded by Utah offensive coordinator (and former Oregon assistant) Andy Ludwig, as Moss leads all Pac-12 rushers with 1,246 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. If the Ducks can gain the advantage in the trenches, it likely means they’ll have the inside track on winning this game.
2. Justin Herbert must be the difference
Time is running out on Justin Herbert’s career at Oregon, and for all the numbers and records we’ve seen Herbert put up, we’re still waiting for that one indelible moment or signature performance that catapults him into a class of quarterbacks at Oregon that is truly legendary. Truth be told, it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that that opportunity has passed Herbert by. Though even if it has, Friday’s game nevertheless provides an opportunity for Herbert to do something only a handful of greats have done during the course of their careers at Oregon: win a Pac-12 Championship and lead his team to a Rose Bowl. For that to happen, the Ducks will likely need Herbert to deliver the kind of career game that has been long-awaited since the start of his sophomore season in Eugene.
Blessed with practically every physical tool you could want in a quarterback, Herbert is a deferential star who gives the Ducks a chance to win any game they play in, though is rarely the force that has compelled his team to victory in a spotlight moment. The Stanford game in 2018 stands as perhaps Herbert’s most remarkable performance to date, though that game will be forever remembered for the way in which the Ducks collapsed in unimaginable fashion in the second half before falling to the Cardinal in overtime. This season, Herbert has certainly had moments where he’s been a critical component to come-from-behind victories, though they’ve often been preceded with confounding stretches of play. The last two weeks, in particular, have probably done more harm than good when it comes to projecting Herbert’s abilities to the next level, but those outings don’t have to be the moments that define Herbert’s time at Oregon. With the biggest game of his career standing before him, Herbert is equipped with everything he needs to make Friday night special for himself, his team, and his community. But in order to do so, Herbert will need to put it all together and be the ultimate catalyst that leads this program to its most substantive win in half a decade.
3. Force Tyler Huntley to win this game with his arm
Like most seasons, the Pac-12 was chock full of talented passers in 2019. However, the player that has emerged this season as the conference’s best quarterback doesn’t have the last name Herbert, Eason, or Tate. The conference’s best quarterback is Huntley, as in Utah’s Tyler Huntley, who finished the regular season as the Pac-12’s most accurate (75.5 completion percentage) and most highly rated passer (188.65). In fact, one could argue that the development of Huntley’s game as a passer has been the single most significant development in the Pac-12 this season, providing the Utah offense with the kind of lethal balance that has been missing from head coach Kyle Whittingham’s teams in recent years.
With that said, the Utes remain at their core a team that prefers to run the ball in order to win games. Oregon’s strength on defense throughout the season has been their ability to stuff the running game of their opponents, ranking second in the Pac-12 behind Utah in rushing defense (106.08 yards/game). If the Ducks can find a way to neutralize Moss and the Utes on the ground, they may be able to force Utah to become more dependent on Huntley’s arm. And as good as Huntley has been this season when forced to throw, his effectiveness as a passer is often a bi-product of the Utes’ ability to run the football at will. Rendering Utah one-dimensional on offense will likely require the Ducks to be superior in all phases of Friday’s game, but it begins with stopping the run and causing Huntley to air it more times than he and Utes would prefer. The magic number in this game could be 30, as in 30 pass attempts. Should Oregon force Huntley to throw 30 or more times, it likely portends good things for the Ducks.
Top Photo: Oregon CB/KR Mykael Wright (Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)