A season that has provided both thrilling highs and crushing lows is reaching its final chapter.
The Redbox Bowl showdown between the Oregon Ducks and the Michigan State Spartans inside Levi’s Stadium on Monday afternoon has the makings of a game that could stand to shape narratives both this season and for seasons to come.
Riding a wave of momentum coming off a historic recruiting haul during the early signing period, not to mention Justin Herbert’s decision to delay the fame and fortune that comes with being a top NFL draft pick, an opportunity awaits Oregon to begin the process of emphatically re-establishing itself as a preeminent college football power.
With days to go before kickoff, WFOD examines the biggest questions surrounding Oregon football entering its season finale.
1. How do the Ducks look after an extended break?
By the time Monday’s game rolls around, it will have been 38 days since the Ducks took the field in an actual game capacity. And while such an extended break can sometimes disrupt a team’s rhythm before returning to action, the break seems to have come at an opportune time for Oregon.
Prior to the end of the regular season, the Ducks seemed to slowly but surely re-gain the stride that had them firmly in contention for a Pac-12 title over the first half of the season. An effective running game, coupled with an opportunistic defense that helped fuel offensive momentum re-emerged over the final two weeks of the season in victories over Arizona State and Oregon State. This was decidedly not the case during a four-week stretch over the second half of the season in which Oregon dropped three games on the road at Washington State, Arizona, and Utah. If the Ducks more closely resemble the team that finished the season opposed to the team that seemingly lost its way over the course of a month, it could go a long way towards securing a quality bowl victory.
Additionally, Oregon enters Monday’s game as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season, particularly along the offensive line and at linebacker. In the trenches, the Ducks are expected to welcome back true freshman sensation Penei Sewell – who has missed the last six games due to a severe ankle sprain – and fellow true freshman tackle Steven Jones – who returns after recovering from a concussion. Meanwhile, Kaulana Apelu and Isaac Slade-Matautia are slated to make their return to the lineup after suffering ankle and shoulder injuries, respectively, while Jalen Jelks is primed for a return after missing the Civil War due to a hamstring injury. Moreover, the Ducks will have the services of D.J. Johnson and Andrew Johnson (no relation) at their disposal for the first time all season, providing Oregon with the most depth they’ve had at linebacker all year.
2. Is this the final game for guys like Troy Dye and Dillon Mitchell?
After Justin Herbert and offensive linemen Shane Lemieux, Calvin Throckmorton, and Jake Hanson announced their intentions forego the NFL Draft in order to return for their senior seasons at Oregon, the vibes emanating from Eugene are decidedly positive. However, there are still two more players the Ducks are waiting on to render an official decision as to whether or not they are NFL bound in wide receiver Dillon Mitchell and linebacker Troy Dye.
Despite quiet performances during the non-conference portion of the schedule and his curious absence from the Oregon State game due to a suspension, Mitchell still managed to lead all Pac-12 receivers in receiving yards (1,114) and finished tied for third in the conference in touchdown receptions (9). His breakout performance this season has solidified him as one of the top receivers in the Pac-12 moving forward, but the question is whether Mitchell will actually stick around to see a four-year career at Oregon through. Popular opinion suggests that Mitchell would be better served returning for a fourth and final season, as he is currently projected to be a late Day 2/early Day 3 draft pick if he were to declare for the draft after Monday’s game.
Similar types of things can be said of Dye, who has led the Ducks in tackles in each of his three seasons in Eugene, compiling 305 total tackles for his career entering Monday. While Dye’s track record is certainly far more proven compared to that of Mitchell, there are still questions surrounding Dye’s ability to translate his tremendous production to the professional level. Like Mitchell, Dye is a likely Day 2 or Day 3 draft pick, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dye wrestle a little more with his decision.
3. Do Bryan Addison and Braxton Burmeister burn their redshirts?
The availability of sophomore quarterback Braxton Burmeister and true freshman wide receiver Bryan Addison will be interesting subplots to monitor as Monday’s game versus Michigan State unfolds. To this point, both players have appeared in exactly four games this season, making both players still eligible to utilize a redshirt should they not see the field versus the Spartans.
With regard to Burmeister, it seems highly unlikely that he would see action provided Herbert remain healthy for the duration of the contest. In fact, even if Herbert were forced from the game, it’s entirely possible that Burmeister would give way to true freshman Tyler Shough, who has essentially secured his redshirt after having appeared in only three games this season. It’s true that Burmeister largely took the reins from Herbert against Oregon State after Herbert left the game with an injury, though Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal said that the wet weather had as much to do with that decision than anything else, citing Burmeister’s ability as a running threat compared to Shough, who is your more traditional pocket passer.
Meanwhile, the scenario appears considerably more complicated as it relates to Addison. A former four-star recruit, Addison had signed with UCLA during the 2018 recruiting cycle but was never able to gain full admission to the school. With that, Addison switched allegiance to Oregon, though has endured his fair share of ups and downs in his first year on campus. Not only has his opportunity to shine in game action been limited to just one catch for 12 yards, but Addison also served a brief suspension during the season for a violation of team rules. Still, given the Ducks dearth of talent at the receiver position, and the fact that Addison has reportedly been pushing hard for playing time in recent weeks, it could be difficult to keep the talented, but unproven freshman off the field.
4. How much does a win or loss impact perception heading into 2019?
Given what has transpired for the Ducks both on the recruiting trail and with the announcements of Herbert, Lemieux, Throckmorton, and Hanson’s intention to return to the program in 2019, hopes are understandably high as the program looks to the immediate future. In fact, if Mitchell and Dye each decide to return to school next season, Oregon will return 19 of 22 starters in 2019, including all 11 offensive players from a team that went 8-4 during the 2018 regular season.
Barring an unexpected blowout loss on Monday, optimism surrounding the direction of the program seems virtually unshakable at this stage. Certainly a win is the most preferred outcome, but against a team – and particularly a defense – of Michigan State’s caliber, perhaps the most essential thing Duck fans will want to concern themselves with will be the overall quality of Oregon’s play. In particular, if the offense proves it is capable of sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns against one of the nation’s top defenses, then fans can expect to enjoy an offseason in which Oregon is discussed as a legitimate championship contender both in the Pac-12 and for the College Football Playoff.