Oregon’s keys to victory over Colorado


Team / Thursday, October 10th, 2019

A rare Friday matchup for the Ducks is but a day away, as Oregon plays host to the Colorado Buffaloes.

The last time the Buffs visited Eugene, Colorado quarterback Steven Montez was making his first career start in a game that would ultimately mark the beginning of an encouraging collegiate career for the then redshirt freshman. That game, a loss for the Ducks, also marked the beginning of the end for Mark Helfrich in his tenure as Ducks head coach, as Oregon would go on to name two head coaches (Willie Taggart and Mario Cristobal) in the time spanning from then ’til now.

Indeed, much has changed since 2016, but with the pendulum seemingly swinging back in Oregon’s favor as they continue their hopeful march to the top of the Pac-12’s North division, there’s a growing sense that the Ducks may be as close as they’ve ever been in the last five years to returning to the level of prominence that preceded them roughly a decade prior.

Of course, a critical next step in that journey takes place inside Autzen Stadium with upset-minded Colorado making the trip westward to help kickoff this upcoming weekend of college football. Before the Ducks and Buffs tee it up for real, WFOD takes a look at the keys to victory for Oregon in Friday’s contest.

Oregon's keys to victory over Colorado
Oregon CB Thomas Graham (Photo: Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)

1. Keep a lid on the Colorado passing game

Few teams nationally are as good as Oregon when it comes to defending the pass. In fact, through six weeks of play, there are only eight teams across the country who do a better job of limiting their opponents through the air, as the Ducks rank ninth in passing defense (166 passing yards/game). The Ducks fare even better when it comes to opponent quarterback rating, which is perhaps a more accurate portrayal of how a defense affects the quarterbacks they face, ranking fourth nationally (89.60) in the category.

On Friday, however, the Ducks will contend with what is hands down the best aerial attack they they’ve seen thus far this season. With quarterback Steven Montez at the controls, Colorado boasts the nation’s 23rd-best passing attack (third in the Pac-12), averaging a shade over 300 yards passing per game and featuring one of Pac-12’s most productive receivers in 2019 in senior Tony Brown. The pending availability of Laviska Shenault and K.D. Nixon makes the Buffs’ passing attack even more formidable, as both players are two of the most electrifying receivers in the conference when healthy. Paired with a good, though not great, ground game, the Colorado offense could prove to be a handful for the Ducks if proper attention isn’t paid.

Oregon's keys to victory over Colorado
Oregon WR Jaylon Redd (Photo: Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)

2. Take advantage of a banged up Buffs secondary

As potent as the Buffs can be on offense, they are just as leaky on defense. To give you an idea of how underwhelming the Colorado defense has been this season, consider that Colorado ranks 11th in the Pac-12 in the following defensive categories:

  • Scoring defense (31.6 points/game),
  • Yards allowed per play (6.76)
  • Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage (50%)
  • Allowed plays of 40 yards or more (8)
  • Opponent red zone conversion percentage (86.67%)

Those are uninspiring numbers to begin with, but add in the fact that Colorado will be without mainstays at corner in Mekhi Blackmon and Chris Miller for Friday’s game, it means the Buffs will be relying on senior Delrick Abrams (a 13-game starter) alongside a true freshman in K.J. Trujillo and a junior walk-on in Uryan Hudson. Considering the paper thin nature of the Colorado secondary, the opportunity has never been more ripe for Justin Herbert and his receiving corp to have a confidence boosting game coming off of last week’s shaky performance vs. Cal. If Herbert and company can’t capitalize here, it’s likely because Oregon’s problems on offense run far deeper than we realize.

Oregon's keys to victory over Colorado
Oregon RB Travis Dye (Photo: Jenny Rydstedt/Whole Flock of Ducks)

3. Avoid costly mistakes

Until last week’s game vs. Cal, the Ducks had actually done an impressive job of avoiding turnovers and costly penalties. As a team, they had only committed two turnovers all season and were incurring just over four penalties per game (4.25) through four games. Against the Bears, however, the Ducks turned the ball over three times – each occurring in Cal territory, including two in the red zone – and committed eight penalties for 85 yards, their highest marks of the season for both categories.

Turnovers and penalties had much do with Oregon’s woeful start which saw them trailing Cal 7-0 deep into the third quarter. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal lacked the offensive capacity to make Oregon pay for their self-inflicted mistakes. Colorado, however, does not. Despite being a surprising 20-point favorite heading into Friday’s game, if the Ducks have a repeat performance of last week’s game in terms shooting themselves in the foot, this is a game that could rather easily end in upset.

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