The final day of the decade is upon us, which just so happens to coincide with the penultimate day of the season for the sixth-ranked Oregon Ducks and eighth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers, the two teams set to take the field Wednesday on the first day of a new decade with the 106th Rose Bowl Game serving as the postcard backdrop.
In many ways, Oregon’s presence in Pasadena feels like a fitting way to punctuate what has inarguably been the golden decade for the football program. The symmetry is particularly remarkable, as 10 years ago, another coach with little to no ties to Oregon (or the West Coast, for that matter) led the Ducks to the Rose Bowl in his third overall year (first as head coach) with the program, marking Oregon’s first trip to Pasadena in 15 years. That coach was Chip Kelly, who would go on to author one of the more brilliant four-year runs the sport had ever seen with three more trips to New Year’s Day/post-New Year’s Day bowl games over the course of the next three seasons in Eugene.
Fast forward a decade later, and Mario Cristobal finds himself following in similar footsteps to Kelly. A Miami native who spent virtually his entire coaching career on the East Coast and in the south, in particular, before making his way to Eugene, Cristobal will cap off his third overall season with the Ducks (second as head coach) by seeking a win in Pasadena that would provide Oregon with its third Rose Bowl victory since Kelly’s first trip in 2010. For Cristobal, like Kelly, his hope no doubt is that Wednesday’s game marks the beginning of another similarly illustrious chapter in the program’s history.
As things come full circle on the season – and the decade – for the Ducks, WFOD examines the biggest keys to victory for Oregon over Wisconsin.
1. Be the better team in the trenches
For as good as Justin Herbert and Jonathan Taylor have been for Oregon and Wisconsin, respectively, throughout their careers, the focus in this game will be on the performance of a position group that has come to define the programs in Eugene and Madison: the offensive line. For Wisconsin, quality offensive line play has been the hallmark of that program for decades, as year after year, the Badgers seemingly turn out All-Americans in the offensive trenches. This year is no different, as the Wisconsin offensive line is headlined by first-team All-Big Ten honoree and Rimington Award winner (given to the nation’s best center) Tyler Biadasz. Biadasz and company have been quite alright toiling in relative anonymity, as they’ve helped pave the way for the Big Ten’s second-most potent rushing offense (240.54 yards/game) led by arguably the nation’s top running back in Taylor. That group will face an Oregon front seven that has somewhat quietly emerged as one of the biggest strengths for the Ducks this season, as it’s a group that ranks 10th nationally in stopping the run (106.85 yards/game) and in the top 15 nationally in sacking the quarterback (41.0).
On the other side of the coin, the Oregon offensive line ranks as nation’s most experienced group with four senior starters plus a sophomore who ranks as the Ducks’ first consensus All-American offensive lineman and first Outland Trophy winner (given to the nation’s best offensive lineman) in the incomparable Penei Sewell. Though the group has enjoyed a relatively up and down season when it comes to paving the way for the running game and protecting the quarterback, they’ve unquestionably been at their best against the best competition on the Ducks’ schedule, most recently evidenced by their thoroughly dominant effort vs. one of the nation’s stingiest defensive fronts in Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. They will face a Wisconsin front seven that has been every bit as impressive defensively as Oregon has been when it comes to shutting down the run (102.38 yards/game) and harassing the quarterback, ranking fourth nationally in sacks (49.0).
It may sound like an oversimplification of this game, but much like the Pac-12 Championship Game, the team who plays with more sustained might and fight in the trenches is likely to be the team getting showered with confetti once the sun sets behind the San Gabriel Mountains come Wednesday night.
2. Make Wisconsin’s Jack Coan win this game from the pocket
It’s no secret that the Badgers’ bread and butter on offense is giving Jonathan Taylor the ball and letting him run to daylight behind one of the most consistently excellent offensive lines in college football. Like it or not, this is how Wisconsin wins and it’s a formula that has been very good to the Badgers for decades. Unfortunately for Oregon, Taylor may be the best the running back to ever pass through Madison, which is quite the statement when you consider legendary names like Ron Dayne, Melvin Gordon, Montee Ball, James White, Michael Bennett, and Anthony Davis. Indeed, Taylor will be the focal point for Wisconsin on Wednesday, but if the Ducks can limit him like they limited Utah’s Zack Moss in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the path to victory becomes much easier if Jack Coan is the one who has to keep the chains moving for the Badger offense.
Similar to Utah’s Tyler Huntley, Coan has been most effective when he’s been able to play complementary football to Taylor’s record-setting exploits on the ground. Coan’s 70.1 completion percentage led all Big Ten passers this season, while his four interceptions are tied for the second-fewest in the Big Ten among quarterbacks who attempted 200 or more passes in 2019. He doesn’t make many mistakes because he’s rarely been been forced to shoulder the offensive load for the Badgers, but that narrative could change rather quickly should the game be taken out of Taylor’s hands and put in Coan’s. Oregon’s opportunistic defense thrived in the Pac-12 Championship Game when it succeeded in getting the Utes’ offense off schedule by slowing Moss on first and second down and forcing Huntley make plays with his arm, which ultimately resulted in two costly interceptions. If the Ducks can execute a similar game plan by limiting Taylor on first and second down and forcing Coan to make critical throws on 3rd and 6 or more, it could be a recipe for Rose Bowl success.
3. Take advantage of big play opportunities
Unlike years past, the big play threat hasn’t been something that has been on prominent display for the Ducks on offense during the Cristobal era. That doesn’t mean it has been completely defunct, however. In fact, this season, the Ducks are ranked tied for second in the Pac-12 in plays from scrimmage of 20-plus yards (68) and 50-plus yards (9), while ranking first in the conference in plays of 60 yards or more (7). And with true freshman wide receiver Mycah Pittman expected to make his return from a gruesome arm injury suffered roughly six weeks ago vs. Arizona, the Oregon offense will be as close to full strength as they’ve been since early October.
That’s not exactly the news you want to hear if you’re a Wisconsin fan, for as good as the Badgers have been on defense this season, they have been oddly susceptible to chunk plays. In fact, out of 14 Big Ten teams, Wisconsin ranks 10th in surrendered plays of 20 yards or more (56). Moving the ball on offense doesn’t figure to come easy for either side entering Wednesday’s game, but if the Ducks can find success popping a handful of big plays on offense, it may prove to be the difference in the outcome of this game.
Top Photo: Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal (Kirby Lee/USA Today)